MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
ANA
Anaheim Ducks
#29 Puckigree · −6.84-6-0 · 27th in standingsPacific · Western
As deployed last game
Oct 22 @ NJD, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Split up since the game before: Malott–Granlund–Sennecke · Greer–Washe–Vatrano · Killorn–McQueen–Colangelo · Gauthier–Carlsson–Nesterenko
Line board
Forward lines with 27+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 44.8% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Washe line
Malott – Washe – Caulfield
50.0%chance share xGF%
42 min · 6 GPGF–GA 3–1CF% 49OZ 32%
Top 40%Depth 42%
Granlund line
Killorn – Granlund – Sennecke
46.4%chance share xGF%
28 min · 7 GPGF–GA 2–0CF% 46OZ 41%
Top 54%Mid 29%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 27+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time27%League rank30th most stableLines used 5+ minutes23Games with shift data9 (1 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Luneau–LaCombe
70
9
43.2
43.2
5–3
53
56%
LaCombe–Warren
59
8
41.3
50.0
3–3
49
61%
Mintyukov–Mitchell
56
5
42.4
49.0
0–2
35
52%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
LaCombe, Sennecke, Carlsson, Gauthier, Granlund
20
4–0
7.31
0.42
PP2
LaCombe, Sennecke, Carlsson, Gauthier, Caulfield
5
0–0
5.68
0.00
PK1
LaCombe, Warren, Washe, Granlund
6
0–1
0.00
3.39
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.