LIVE MTL 3 @ CHI 1LIVE TBL 0 @ COL 2MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 9:56 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDLIVE MTL 3 @ CHI 1LIVE TBL 0 @ COL 2MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 9:56 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
BOS
Boston Bruins
#5 Puckigree · +7.98-2-1 · 3rd in standingsAtlantic · Eastern
As deployed last game
Oct 22 vs NSH, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Forward lines with 30+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 53.3% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Mittelstadt line
Mittelstadt – Lindholm – Hagens
49.8%chance share xGF%
53 min · 6 GPGF–GA 2–1CF% 54OZ 41%
Top 59%Mid 26%
Kastelic line
Jeannot – Kastelic – Poitras
49.7%chance share xGF%
43 min · 7 GPGF–GA 2–1CF% 52OZ 36%
Top 38%Mid 27%Depth 35%
Geekie line
Geekie – Zacha – Pastrnak
55.7%chance share xGF%
41 min · 7 GPGF–GA 0–0CF% 47OZ 57%
Top 43%Mid 30%Depth 27%
Lindholm line
Lindholm – Pastrnak – Peterka
53.6%chance share xGF%
38 min · 6 GPGF–GA 1–2CF% 57OZ 78%
Top 61%Mid 18%Depth 21%
Geekie–Zacha–Mittelstadt
Geekie – Zacha – Mittelstadt
50.5%chance share xGF%
38 min · 5 GPGF–GA 1–0CF% 43OZ 34%
Top 58%Mid 29%
Minten line
Minten – Hagens – Khusnutdinov
45.2%chance share xGF%
33 min · 6 GPGF–GA 0–0CF% 38OZ 56%
Top 45%Mid 49%
Jeannot–Kastelic–Kuraly
Jeannot – Kastelic – Kuraly
54.3%chance share xGF%
31 min · 4 GPGF–GA 1–1CF% 50OZ 35%
Top 24%Mid 27%Depth 49%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 30+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time36%League rank22nd most stableLines used 5+ minutes16Games with shift data10 (1 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Zadorov–Clifton
94
6
54.7
49.7
4–4
52
49%
Lohrei–Brunet
93
7
49.3
50.5
4–1
52
44%
Lindholm–Borgen
87
10
54.4
49.1
6–1
50
52%
Lindholm–McAvoy
64
4
57.9
50.8
3–1
58
53%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Pastrnak, Geekie, Zacha, Lindholm, McAvoy
9
3–0
9.59
2.92
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.