MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
CGY
Calgary Flames
#30 Puckigree · −7.93-6-0 · 30th in standingsPacific · Western
As deployed last game
Oct 22 vs MIN, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Split up since the game before: Farabee–Backlund–Coronato
Line board
Forward lines with 24+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 46.4% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Strome line
Strome – Pospisil – Gridin
42.7%chance share xGF%
34 min · 5 GPGF–GA 0–2CF% 44OZ 36%
Top 32%Mid 19%Depth 49%
Frost line
Frost – Coronato – Gridin
46.2%chance share xGF%
31 min · 4 GPGF–GA 0–4CF% 51OZ 86%
Top 55%Mid 24%Depth 21%
Sharangovich line
Farabee – Sharangovich – Backlund
51.9%chance share xGF%
29 min · 5 GPGF–GA 0–2CF% 58OZ 69%
Top 84%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 24+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time30%League rank28th most stableLines used 5+ minutes18Games with shift data8 (1 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Nemec–Bahl
82
8
53.7
53.2
3–2
51
57%
Middleton–Parekh
80
6
48.2
49.4
2–7
66
40%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Parekh, Coronato, Farabee, Frost, Gridin
20
4–1
7.86
1.54
PK1
Bahl, Whitecloud, Backlund, Honzek
5
0–0
0.22
2.69
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.