MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
DAL
Dallas Stars
#6 Puckigree · +5.76-3-1 · 12th in standingsCentral · Western
As deployed last game
Oct 22 vs WPG, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Forward lines with 21+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 53.8% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Johnston line
Johnston – Steel – Rantanen
63.1%chance share xGF%
44 min · 7 GPGF–GA 2–1CF% 58OZ 69%
Top 64%Mid 21%
Seguin line
Robertson – Seguin – Hintz
47.0%chance share xGF%
35 min · 7 GPGF–GA 1–2CF% 55OZ 54%
Top 67%
Hintz line
Robertson – Benn – Hintz
60.4%chance share xGF%
25 min · 7 GPGF–GA 2–0CF% 58OZ 44%
Top 66%Mid 22%
Seguin–Hryckowian–Hyry
Seguin – Hryckowian – Hyry
50.2%chance share xGF%
21 min · 5 GPGF–GA 0–0CF% 44OZ 29%
Top 30%Mid 35%Depth 35%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 21+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time38%League rank19th most stableLines used 5+ minutes13Games with shift data7 (3 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Bichsel–Myers
73
7
46.4
48.7
1–0
32
42%
Harley–Lundkvist
61
7
58.2
55.9
6–1
39
63%
Harley–Heiskanen
53
7
64.1
63.4
2–2
78
68%
Heiskanen–Lindell
47
5
56.3
52.7
3–0
31
69%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Heiskanen, Johnston, Rantanen, Robertson, Hintz
22
1–0
12.21
0.17
PK1
Heiskanen, Lindell, Faksa, Bäck
6
0–0
0.00
5.10
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.