MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
MTL
Montréal Canadiens
#17 Puckigree · −0.34-3-2 · 22nd in standingsAtlantic · Eastern
As deployed last game
Oct 20 vs SJS, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Forward lines with 21+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 55.0% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Suzuki line
Slafkovský – Suzuki – Caufield
63.0%chance share xGF%
53 min · 7 GPGF–GA 3–0CF% 58OZ 67%
Top 75%
Danault line
Texier – Danault – Bolduc
65.5%chance share xGF%
45 min · 6 GPGF–GA 2–0CF% 55OZ 64%
Top 52%Mid 27%Depth 21%
Newhook line
Kreider – Newhook – Anderson
48.8%chance share xGF%
37 min · 4 GPGF–GA 1–3CF% 48OZ 70%
Top 45%Mid 44%
Kreider–Suzuki–Caufield
Kreider – Suzuki – Caufield
51.3%chance share xGF%
26 min · 3 GPGF–GA 3–1CF% 42OZ 61%
Top 67%Depth 22%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 21+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time51%League rank7th most stableLines used 5+ minutes10Games with shift data7 (2 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Hutson–Dobson
69
7
56.0
57.5
1–3
80
60%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Hutson, Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovský, Kreider
12
0–0
5.95
1.07
PP2
Hutson, Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovský, Bolduc
6
1–0
8.90
0.00
PK1
Carrier, Matheson, Danault, Evans
6
0–0
2.21
9.23
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.