MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
NYI
New York Islanders
#15 Puckigree · +0.15-3-2 · 14th in standingsMetropolitan · Eastern
As deployed last game
Oct 22 vs LAK, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Forward lines with 24+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 51.7% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Horvat line
Horvat – Palmieri – Holmstrom
57.5%chance share xGF%
38 min · 7 GPGF–GA 2–1CF% 58OZ 68%
Top 51%Mid 37%
Schenn line
Schenn – Ritchie – Eklund
51.8%chance share xGF%
33 min · 6 GPGF–GA 3–0CF% 49OZ 54%
Top 44%Mid 36%Depth 20%
Heineman–Horvat–Palmieri
Heineman – Horvat – Palmieri
45.4%chance share xGF%
32 min · 8 GPGF–GA 0–0CF% 43OZ 35%
Top 75%
Pageau line
Palat – Duclair – Pageau
52.6%chance share xGF%
30 min · 7 GPGF–GA 2–2CF% 52OZ 67%
Top 55%Mid 29%
Duclair–Pageau–Holmstrom
Duclair – Pageau – Holmstrom
43.5%chance share xGF%
27 min · 6 GPGF–GA 1–0CF% 39OZ 48%
Top 54%Mid 34%
Heineman–Schenn–Eklund
Heineman – Schenn – Eklund
63.2%chance share xGF%
25 min · 3 GPGF–GA 2–0CF% 66OZ 82%
Top 33%Mid 41%Depth 27%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 24+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time36%League rank23rd most stableLines used 5+ minutes16Games with shift data8 (2 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Schaefer–Stanley
85
8
58.2
54.4
4–1
46
58%
Pelech–Pulock
65
8
48.7
51.1
2–0
48
69%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Schaefer, Horvat, Schenn, Palmieri, Maccelli
15
3–0
7.86
0.04
PP2
Schaefer, Horvat, Holmstrom, Schenn, Palmieri
10
1–0
9.53
0.00
PK1
Pelech, Pulock, Holmstrom, Pageau
9
0–0
0.07
11.16
PK2
Pelech, Pulock, Horvat, Heineman
6
0–0
0.00
7.40
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.