MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
OTT
Ottawa Senators
#11 Puckigree · +3.57-4-0 · 10th in standingsAtlantic · Eastern
As deployed last game
Oct 22 vs SJS, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Forward lines with 30+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 52.6% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Pinto line
Pinto – Amadio – Giroux
49.6%chance share xGF%
46 min · 9 GPGF–GA 2–1CF% 45OZ 36%
Top 69%Mid 18%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 30+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time27%League rank31st most stableLines used 5+ minutes19Games with shift data10 (1 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Spence–Chabot
85
8
50.8
53.0
5–4
43
56%
Kleven–Yakemchuk
63
10
42.0
39.6
2–2
63
53%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Stützle, Batherson, Cozens, Halliday, Sanderson
9
1–1
8.46
1.19
PP2
Yakemchuk, Stützle, Batherson, Cozens, Eklund
8
1–0
11.22
0.00
PP3
Chabot, Pinto, Giroux, Zetterlund, Halliday
6
1–0
7.87
0.42
PP4
Chabot, Stützle, Batherson, Cozens, Burakovsky
6
1–0
3.02
0.32
PP5
Yakemchuk, Pinto, Giroux, Zetterlund, Greig
5
1–0
7.86
0.00
PP6
Yakemchuk, Stützle, Batherson, Cozens, Halliday
5
1–0
19.14
0.00
PK1
Kleven, Pinto, Matinpalo, Greig
7
0–0
0.92
6.50
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.