MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
PIT
Pittsburgh Penguins
#25 Puckigree · −4.44-6-1 · 25th in standingsMetropolitan · Eastern
As deployed last game
Oct 22 vs FLA, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Split up since the game before: Robertson–Dewar–Lizotte · Crosby–Chinakhov–Rust · Malkin–Novak–Koivunen · Kuzmenko–Kindel–Rakell
Line board
Forward lines with 27+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 51.8% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Malkin line
Malkin – Novak – Chinakhov
51.5%chance share xGF%
50 min · 6 GPGF–GA 2–1CF% 50OZ 71%
Top 45%Mid 29%Depth 26%
Crosby line
Crosby – Rakell – Rust
46.7%chance share xGF%
42 min · 5 GPGF–GA 2–4CF% 45OZ 61%
Top 74%
Robertson–Crosby–Rakell
Robertson – Crosby – Rakell
57.0%chance share xGF%
33 min · 8 GPGF–GA 3–1CF% 61OZ 52%
Top 71%
Malkin–Novak–Koivunen
Malkin – Novak – Koivunen
51.4%chance share xGF%
28 min · 6 GPGF–GA 2–4CF% 49OZ 89%
Top 56%Depth 30%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 27+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time35%League rank24th most stableLines used 5+ minutes22Games with shift data9 (2 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Korczak–Girard
86
7
53.6
55.3
7–8
40
63%
Karlsson–Carlile
80
9
50.2
49.7
6–7
51
55%
Letang–van Riemsdyk
57
5
44.7
43.4
1–1
42
46%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Karlsson, Crosby, Rakell, Novak, Kindel
8
1–0
8.95
0.00
PP2
Karlsson, Crosby, Rakell, Malkin, Kindel
6
0–0
0.00
2.36
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.