MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
SJS
San Jose Sharks
#28 Puckigree · −6.46-4-1 · 13th in standingsPacific · Western
As deployed last game
Oct 22 @ OTT, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Split up since the game before: Chernyshov–Smith–Celebrini · Marchment–Toffoli–Graf
Line board
Forward lines with 30+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 41.9% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Smith line
Chernyshov – Smith – Celebrini
54.3%chance share xGF%
52 min · 8 GPGF–GA 4–2CF% 60OZ 55%
Top 80%
Misa line
Sherwood – Stenberg – Misa
38.3%chance share xGF%
44 min · 7 GPGF–GA 1–2CF% 45OZ 44%
Top 55%Mid 31%
Marchment–Smith–Celebrini
Marchment – Smith – Celebrini
43.2%chance share xGF%
37 min · 7 GPGF–GA 1–3CF% 56OZ 48%
Top 47%Mid 37%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 30+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time34%League rank25th most stableLines used 5+ minutes20Games with shift data10 (1 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Kesselring–Nurse
128
9
38.4
46.4
2–4
45
59%
Trouba–Dickinson
114
8
43.4
47.7
1–5
40
50%
Orlov–Cagnoni
82
7
37.1
47.3
1–2
46
43%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Orlov, Smith, Celebrini, Stenberg, Wennberg
13
2–0
9.75
0.86
PP2
Smith, Celebrini, Chernyshov, Wennberg, Cagnoni
6
1–0
10.56
0.60
PK1
Trouba, Nurse, Graf, Goodrow
10
0–3
0.00
10.82
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.