MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
UTA
Utah Mammoth
#10 Puckigree · +4.07-4-0 · 8th in standingsCentral · Western
As deployed last game
Oct 22 @ SEA, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Split up since the game before: Crouse–Schmaltz–Keller · Trocheck–Cooley–Guenther
Line board
Forward lines with 30+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 59.5% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Schmaltz line
Crouse – Schmaltz – Keller
59.9%chance share xGF%
52 min · 10 GPGF–GA 1–2CF% 57OZ 68%
Top 55%Mid 28%
Trocheck line
Trocheck – Schmaltz – Keller
56.8%chance share xGF%
51 min · 5 GPGF–GA 3–4CF% 56OZ 68%
Top 55%Mid 29%
Hayton line
Lee – Hayton – Yamamoto
70.3%chance share xGF%
50 min · 5 GPGF–GA 3–2CF% 58OZ 49%
Top 41%Mid 25%Depth 34%
Trocheck–Cooley–Guenther
Trocheck – Cooley – Guenther
57.7%chance share xGF%
48 min · 5 GPGF–GA 1–1CF% 49OZ 60%
Top 45%Mid 29%Depth 25%
McBain line
But – McBain – Stenlund
56.9%chance share xGF%
46 min · 10 GPGF–GA 3–1CF% 49OZ 27%
Top 47%Mid 29%Depth 25%
Cooley line
Lee – Cooley – Guenther
60.0%chance share xGF%
45 min · 5 GPGF–GA 3–2CF% 52OZ 71%
Top 60%Mid 26%
Crouse–Hayton–McBain
Crouse – Hayton – McBain
66.3%chance share xGF%
43 min · 5 GPGF–GA 1–0CF% 52OZ 48%
Top 49%Mid 29%Depth 23%
Stenlund line
But – Carcone – Stenlund
56.9%chance share xGF%
38 min · 5 GPGF–GA 1–0CF% 57OZ 52%
Top 55%Mid 24%Depth 21%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 30+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time42%League rank17th most stableLines used 5+ minutes9Games with shift data10 (1 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Weegar–Sergachev
122
10
62.0
56.6
4–7
49
64%
Schmidt–Marino
107
8
57.8
54.1
4–5
58
47%
Simashev–Peeke
78
10
55.8
46.7
2–4
66
47%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Sergachev, Keller, Schmaltz, Guenther, Cooley
35
9–0
8.00
0.02
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.