LIVE MTL 3 @ CHI 1LIVE TBL 0 @ COL 2MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 9:56 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDLIVE MTL 3 @ CHI 1LIVE TBL 0 @ COL 2MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 9:56 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
VGK
Vegas Golden Knights
#7 Puckigree · +5.18-4-0 · 4th in standingsPacific · Western
As deployed last game
Oct 22 @ STL, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Split up since the game before: Howden–Karlsson–Marner · Connelly–Hertl–Lavoie · Gatcomb–Dowd–Bowman
Line board
Forward lines with 30+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 55.7% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Eichel line
Barbashev – Eichel – Stone
60.2%chance share xGF%
107 min · 10 GPGF–GA 6–1CF% 53OZ 50%
Top 68%
Howden line
Howden – Karlsson – Marner
56.6%chance share xGF%
93 min · 9 GPGF–GA 4–6CF% 55OZ 60%
Top 66%
Gatcomb line
Gatcomb – Dowd – Bowman
40.5%chance share xGF%
67 min · 10 GPGF–GA 1–4CF% 45OZ 33%
Top 38%Mid 19%Depth 43%
Hertl line
Connelly – Hertl – Lavoie
49.7%chance share xGF%
46 min · 6 GPGF–GA 2–2CF% 48OZ 71%
Top 26%Mid 29%Depth 45%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 30+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time63%League rank1st most stableLines used 5+ minutes15Games with shift data10 (2 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Theodore–McNabb
153
10
64.3
53.4
13–5
53
61%
Hanifin–Lauzon
92
10
58.5
53.2
1–1
56
49%
Andersson–Wotherspoon
83
6
55.3
54.0
2–7
61
49%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Eichel, Stone, Marner, Hertl, Connelly
22
2–0
8.20
2.34
PP2
Theodore, Eichel, Stone, Marner, Hertl
11
1–0
8.01
2.46
PK1
Theodore, McNabb, Karlsson, Dowd
5
0–5
2.33
12.22
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.