MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
WPG
Winnipeg Jets
#14 Puckigree · +0.34-3-3 · 19th in standingsCentral · Western
As deployed last game
Oct 22 @ DAL, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Split up since the game before: Lowry–Rosén–Niederreiter · Koepke–Barron–Lambert
Line board
Forward lines with 27+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 42.7% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Scheifele line
Connor – Scheifele – Perfetti
43.1%chance share xGF%
121 min · 9 GPGF–GA 7–5CF% 50OZ 63%
Top 61%Mid 21%Depth 19%
Lowry line
Iafallo – Lowry – Rosén
48.6%chance share xGF%
35 min · 4 GPGF–GA 4–1CF% 52OZ 8%
Top 59%Mid 22%Depth 18%
Vilardi line
Vilardi – Björck – Rosén
43.8%chance share xGF%
35 min · 9 GPGF–GA 0–1CF% 43OZ 71%
Top 37%Mid 46%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 27+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time50%League rank8th most stableLines used 5+ minutes14Games with shift data9 (1 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Samberg–Pionk
106
9
41.0
51.2
6–3
36
65%
DeMelo–Ferraro
65
9
41.8
48.6
0–0
25
68%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Pionk, Scheifele, Connor, Perfetti, Vilardi
19
1–0
6.35
0.16
PP2
Scheifele, Connor, Perfetti, Vilardi, Morrissey
9
4–0
16.27
0.00
PK1
DeMelo, Ferraro, Lowry, Barron
6
0–0
0.31
6.20
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.