MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
CAR
Carolina Hurricanes
#1 Puckigree · +11.08-2-2 · 1st in standingsMetropolitan · Eastern
As deployed last game
Oct 22 @ EDM, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Split up since the game before: Deslauriers–Nadeau–Kotkaniemi · Martinook–Robinson–Unger Sörum
Line board
Forward lines with 33+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 59.2% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Aho line
Carrier – Aho – Svechnikov
65.9%chance share xGF%
95 min · 9 GPGF–GA 6–6CF% 58OZ 57%
Top 71%Mid 24%
Stankoven line
Hall – Stankoven – Blake
60.0%chance share xGF%
62 min · 7 GPGF–GA 3–1CF% 51OZ 66%
Top 44%Mid 42%
Staal line
Martinook – Ehlers – Staal
54.0%chance share xGF%
44 min · 6 GPGF–GA 1–2CF% 56OZ 55%
Top 30%Mid 57%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 33+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time46%League rank12th most stableLines used 5+ minutes19Games with shift data11 (1 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Walker–Miller
172
11
54.1
52.2
5–8
58
51%
Slavin–Chatfield
164
11
61.5
55.5
8–6
58
51%
Gostisbehere–Reilly
74
7
65.3
66.9
7–4
81
26%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Aho, Blake, Gostisbehere, Svechnikov, Ehlers
30
5–0
8.24
0.16
PP2
Aho, Blake, Gostisbehere, Svechnikov, Staal
8
2–0
17.76
0.00
PK1
Slavin, Chatfield, Martinook, Staal
9
0–1
0.35
4.83
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.