MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
COL
Colorado Avalanche
#4 Puckigree · +8.25-4-1 · 17th in standingsCentral · Western
As deployed last game
Oct 20 @ NJD, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Split up since the game before: Lehkonen–MacKinnon–Kadri · Landeskog–Necas–Nelson
Line board
Forward lines with 24+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 54.2% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
MacKinnon line
Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas
54.2%chance share xGF%
57 min · 8 GPGF–GA 7–4CF% 51OZ 57%
Top 63%Depth 19%
Kadri line
Landeskog – Kadri – Nelson
55.5%chance share xGF%
49 min · 7 GPGF–GA 2–1CF% 52OZ 52%
Top 52%Mid 24%Depth 23%
Svechkov line
Schwartz – Svechkov – Hughes
54.0%chance share xGF%
45 min · 8 GPGF–GA 5–2CF% 58OZ 35%
Top 28%Mid 40%Depth 32%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 24+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time45%League rank13th most stableLines used 5+ minutes13Games with shift data8 (2 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Toews–Makar
92
8
57.0
51.7
7–4
65
66%
Manson–Burns
74
8
55.5
52.8
5–6
49
36%
Kulak–Malinski
63
7
57.8
57.9
4–2
44
52%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Makar, MacKinnon, Necas, Kadri, Hughes
11
1–0
10.98
0.80
PP2
Makar, MacKinnon, Necas, Landeskog, Hughes
9
0–2
3.63
0.84
PP3
Makar, MacKinnon, Kadri, Schwartz, Hughes
7
0–0
10.85
1.93
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.