LIVE MTL 3 @ CHI 1LIVE TBL 0 @ COL 2MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 9:56 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDLIVE MTL 3 @ CHI 1LIVE TBL 0 @ COL 2MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 9:56 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
DET
Detroit Red Wings
#21 Puckigree · −2.44-3-3 · 20th in standingsAtlantic · Eastern
As deployed last game
Oct 22 @ VAN, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Split up since the game before: Mazur–Copp–Rasmussen · Finnie–DeBrincat–Brandsegg-Nygård · Raymond–Arvidsson–Larkin
Line board
Forward lines with 24+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 54.8% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Finnie line
Finnie – DeBrincat – Brandsegg-Nygård
61.5%chance share xGF%
53 min · 6 GPGF–GA 4–1CF% 55OZ 48%
Top 66%Mid 28%
Larkin line
Raymond – Arvidsson – Larkin
55.6%chance share xGF%
52 min · 5 GPGF–GA 1–3CF% 54OZ 49%
Top 70%Depth 23%
Copp line
Copp – Rasmussen – Kolesar
50.3%chance share xGF%
32 min · 8 GPGF–GA 0–1CF% 58OZ 38%
Top 57%Mid 19%Depth 25%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 24+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time44%League rank14th most stableLines used 5+ minutes16Games with shift data8 (2 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Seider–Chiarot
58
8
52.6
60.9
1–3
39
66%
Seider–Johansson
53
8
59.6
55.9
2–1
56
68%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Seider, Raymond, DeBrincat, Arvidsson, Larkin
20
4–0
11.54
0.00
PP2
Seider, Raymond, DeBrincat, Arvidsson, Copp
8
1–0
7.68
0.93
PP3
Faulk, Brandsegg-Nygård, Finnie, Copp, Rasmussen
7
1–0
5.92
0.97
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.