LIVE MTL 3 @ CHI 1LIVE TBL 0 @ COL 2MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 9:56 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDLIVE MTL 3 @ CHI 1LIVE TBL 0 @ COL 2MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 9:56 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
EDM
Edmonton Oilers
#3 Puckigree · +8.38-1-1 · 2nd in standingsPacific · Western
As deployed last game
Oct 22 vs CAR, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Split up since the game before: Hyman–Dach–Kapanen · Howard–Frederic–Hallander
Line board
Forward lines with 24+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 51.5% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
McDavid line
McDavid – Draisaitl – Podkolzin
57.8%chance share xGF%
96 min · 7 GPGF–GA 12–3CF% 52OZ 63%
Top 73%
Joseph line
Formenton – Joseph – Michaels
45.4%chance share xGF%
64 min · 7 GPGF–GA 5–6CF% 45OZ 42%
Top 47%Mid 31%Depth 22%
Dach line
Hyman – Dach – Kapanen
45.7%chance share xGF%
26 min · 3 GPGF–GA 0–0CF% 47OZ 50%
Top 45%Mid 29%Depth 25%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 24+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time52%League rank6th most stableLines used 5+ minutes15Games with shift data8 (2 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Bouchard–Ekholm
111
8
56.1
51.7
11–2
58
65%
Murphy–Shea
111
8
49.8
47.7
4–4
32
55%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Bouchard, McDavid, Draisaitl, Podkolzin, Kapanen
14
3–0
10.75
0.44
PP2
Bouchard, McDavid, Draisaitl, Podkolzin, Hyman
9
2–1
9.36
0.82
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.