MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
MIN
Minnesota Wild
#8 Puckigree · +5.06-3-2 · 9th in standingsCentral · Western
As deployed last game
Oct 22 @ CGY, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Split up since the game before: Trenin–Yurov–Shabanov
Line board
Forward lines with 30+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 55.0% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Eriksson Ek line
Kaprizov – Boldy – Eriksson Ek
65.5%chance share xGF%
100 min · 10 GPGF–GA 5–0CF% 60OZ 71%
Top 68%Mid 19%
Hartman line
Coleman – Hartman – Brink
52.7%chance share xGF%
42 min · 10 GPGF–GA 1–1CF% 54OZ 58%
Top 41%Mid 31%Depth 28%
Yurov line
Kaprizov – Yurov – Shabanov
52.0%chance share xGF%
31 min · 8 GPGF–GA 0–1CF% 59OZ 63%
Top 69%Mid 21%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 30+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time44%League rank14th most stableLines used 5+ minutes18Games with shift data10 (1 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Hughes–Spurgeon
96
7
57.5
53.9
4–2
67
60%
Hughes–Brodin
78
10
64.4
60.5
5–2
68
66%
Hunt–Bogosian
74
9
47.1
42.5
2–2
34
51%
Brodin–Maatta
64
6
52.2
51.0
0–1
44
68%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Hughes, Kaprizov, Boldy, Eriksson Ek, Shabanov
23
4–1
9.05
2.36
PP2
Hughes, Kaprizov, Boldy, Eriksson Ek, Yurov
6
0–0
10.87
0.00
PK1
Brodin, Coleman, Spurgeon, McCarron
6
0–1
0.00
9.45
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.