MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
SEA
Seattle Kraken
#20 Puckigree · −0.97-3-1 · 5th in standingsPacific · Western
As deployed last game
Oct 22 vs UTA, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Forward lines with 30+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 45.2% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
McMann line
McMann – Stephenson – Eberle
41.3%chance share xGF%
89 min · 9 GPGF–GA 4–7CF% 49OZ 41%
Top 58%Mid 26%
Wright line
Wright – Catton – Kakko
53.7%chance share xGF%
73 min · 9 GPGF–GA 8–5CF% 52OZ 67%
Top 47%Mid 23%Depth 29%
Gaudreau line
Gaudreau – Winterton – Meyers
48.4%chance share xGF%
66 min · 7 GPGF–GA 6–2CF% 45OZ 18%
Top 45%Depth 39%
Beniers line
McCann – Beniers – Samoskevich
49.0%chance share xGF%
63 min · 9 GPGF–GA 5–1CF% 48OZ 40%
Top 71%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 30+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time60%League rank3rd most stableLines used 5+ minutes10Games with shift data10 (1 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Larsson–Dunn
157
10
40.0
42.6
7–4
38
65%
Evans–Montour
138
9
47.0
49.4
12–7
59
51%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Dunn, McMann, Stephenson, Eberle, McCann
18
3–0
9.71
0.00
PP2
Montour, Beniers, Wright, Catton, Kakko
11
0–0
3.88
0.56
PK1
Larsson, Dunn, Gaudreau, Meyers
6
0–3
0.00
14.46
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.