MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
STL
St. Louis Blues
#13 Puckigree · +1.45-4-1 · 18th in standingsCentral · Western
As deployed last game
Oct 22 vs VGK, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Forward lines with 27+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 49.0% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Thomas line
Holloway – Thomas – Snuggerud
52.5%chance share xGF%
93 min · 9 GPGF–GA 4–4CF% 47OZ 49%
Top 66%Mid 26%
McTavish line
McMichael – McTavish – Berggren
48.7%chance share xGF%
71 min · 7 GPGF–GA 4–4CF% 47OZ 69%
Top 57%Mid 30%
Buchnevich line
Neighbours – Buchnevich – Dvorsky
52.1%chance share xGF%
46 min · 7 GPGF–GA 0–0CF% 45OZ 56%
Top 37%Mid 41%Depth 22%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 27+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time53%League rank5th most stableLines used 5+ minutes14Games with shift data9 (1 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Fowler–Carlo
97
9
48.4
42.5
2–7
33
62%
Broberg–Jiricek
58
8
55.3
42.3
3–2
76
46%
Broberg–Parayko
55
9
42.4
47.1
1–5
41
65%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Broberg, Thomas, Holloway, Snuggerud, Neighbours
9
3–0
9.45
1.86
PP2
Fowler, Thomas, Holloway, Snuggerud, McTavish
7
0–0
2.20
0.09
PP3
Thomas, Holloway, Snuggerud, Jiricek, Neighbours
6
0–0
6.06
1.59
PK1
Broberg, Parayko, Thomas, Buchnevich
5
0–1
0.35
7.62
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.