MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
TBL
Tampa Bay Lightning
#2 Puckigree · +9.97-2-0 · 7th in standingsAtlantic · Eastern
As deployed last game
Oct 20 @ VGK, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Forward lines with 21+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 57.8% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Girgensons line
Girgensons – Mikheyev – Holmberg
55.9%chance share xGF%
59 min · 6 GPGF–GA 4–1CF% 52OZ 53%
Top 72%
Guentzel line
Hagel – Guentzel – Cirelli
61.7%chance share xGF%
39 min · 6 GPGF–GA 1–0CF% 48OZ 71%
Top 56%Mid 38%
Point line
Point – Goncalves – Kucherov
61.8%chance share xGF%
31 min · 6 GPGF–GA 3–0CF% 58OZ 86%
Top 39%Mid 40%Depth 21%
Cirelli line
Hagel – Cirelli – Kucherov
66.4%chance share xGF%
28 min · 7 GPGF–GA 1–1CF% 68OZ 63%
Top 77%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 21+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time48%League rank10th most stableLines used 5+ minutes13Games with shift data7 (2 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Moser–Carlson
84
7
60.9
54.7
5–3
72
55%
Cernak–McDonagh
68
7
58.0
53.8
6–2
57
66%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Kucherov, Carlson, Hagel, Guentzel, Point
22
1–0
7.75
0.56
PK1
Cernak, Hagel, McDonagh, Cirelli
7
0–2
2.42
6.91
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.