MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
NSH
Nashville Predators
#22 Puckigree · −3.13-3-3 · 24th in standingsCentral · Western
As deployed last game
Oct 22 @ BOS, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Split up since the game before: Kerfoot–Colton–Marchessault
Line board
Forward lines with 24+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 44.7% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Hoglander line
Forsberg – Hoglander – Wood
54.6%chance share xGF%
42 min · 8 GPGF–GA 1–1CF% 51OZ 63%
Top 46%Mid 39%
Drury line
Schaefer – Drury – Edstrom
52.1%chance share xGF%
34 min · 6 GPGF–GA 1–1CF% 68OZ 40%
Top 64%Mid 20%
Stamkos line
Stamkos – O'Reilly – Kerfoot
51.4%chance share xGF%
31 min · 6 GPGF–GA 0–2CF% 54OZ 38%
Top 81%
Forsberg–Stamkos–O'Reilly
Forsberg – Stamkos – O'Reilly
51.7%chance share xGF%
28 min · 8 GPGF–GA 2–1CF% 46OZ 46%
Top 57%Mid 35%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 24+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time36%League rank22nd most stableLines used 5+ minutes17Games with shift data8 (1 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Skjei–Perbix
81
7
42.4
47.4
1–5
34
62%
Josi–Hague
57
8
35.4
38.3
0–1
48
65%
Josi–Wilsby
52
8
57.6
52.7
3–1
53
63%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Josi, Forsberg, Stamkos, O'Reilly, Marchessault
16
5–0
8.22
0.26
PP2
Josi, Forsberg, Stamkos, O'Reilly, Wood
10
1–0
7.89
0.89
PK1
Skjei, Drury, Perbix, Kerfoot
9
0–0
0.00
5.60
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.