LIVE MTL 3 @ CHI 1LIVE TBL 0 @ COL 2MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 9:56 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDLIVE MTL 3 @ CHI 1LIVE TBL 0 @ COL 2MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 9:56 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
TOR
Toronto Maple Leafs
#19 Puckigree · −0.86-4-2 · 11th in standingsAtlantic · Eastern
As deployed last game
Oct 22 vs NYR, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Forward lines with 30+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 44.5% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Matthews line
Matthews – Roslovic – Marchenko
53.6%chance share xGF%
52 min · 9 GPGF–GA 1–3CF% 54OZ 70%
Top 69%
Nylander line
Paul – Nylander – Marchenko
49.5%chance share xGF%
34 min · 7 GPGF–GA 0–1CF% 61OZ 71%
Top 57%Mid 26%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 30+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time32%League rank27th most stableLines used 5+ minutes17Games with shift data10 (2 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Stecher–Ekman-Larsson
77
10
52.9
52.7
5–2
48
53%
Raddysh–Rielly
76
10
48.1
51.2
3–7
78
64%
McCabe–Tanev
66
6
40.0
45.0
2–1
38
63%
Raddysh–McCabe
63
10
42.7
53.1
1–2
27
79%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Raddysh, Matthews, Nylander, Marchenko, McKenna
19
7–0
11.13
1.09
PP2
Raddysh, Matthews, Nylander, Marchenko, Tavares
17
1–1
8.36
0.78
PP3
Rielly, Roslovic, Cowan, Paul, McKenna
5
1–0
6.28
0.00
PK1
McCabe, Blueger, Duhaime, Tanev
5
0–0
0.00
16.56
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.