MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
WSH
Washington Capitals
#9 Puckigree · +5.05-4-0 · 21st in standingsMetropolitan · Eastern
As deployed last game
Oct 20 vs LAK, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Forward lines with 21+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 51.8% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Dubois line
Dubois – Tuch – Wilson
54.2%chance share xGF%
34 min · 4 GPGF–GA 3–0CF% 53OZ 23%
Top 56%Mid 37%
Protas line
Protas – Protas – Kyrou
50.4%chance share xGF%
30 min · 5 GPGF–GA 1–3CF% 55OZ 43%
Top 61%Depth 23%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 21+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time32%League rank26th most stableLines used 5+ minutes15Games with shift data7 (2 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Chychrun–Liljegren
60
7
51.3
49.6
4–3
48
61%
Fehervary–Desharnais
56
7
51.2
52.0
5–1
24
65%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Chychrun, Strome, Wilson, Ovechkin, Dubois
9
1–0
7.37
0.26
PK1
Fehervary, Desharnais, Jenner, Wilson
6
0–0
0.00
14.01
PK2
Fehervary, Jenner, Wilson, Roy
5
0–1
0.00
14.89
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.