MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
CBJ
Columbus Blue Jackets
#27 Puckigree · −6.33-5-0 · 28th in standingsMetropolitan · Eastern
As deployed last game
Oct 20 vs TOR, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Split up since the game before: Monahan–Nichushkin–Garland · Lomberg–Heinen–Del Bel Belluz
Line board
Forward lines with 21+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 47.7% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Fantilli line
Knies – Fantilli – Johnson
49.5%chance share xGF%
76 min · 7 GPGF–GA 4–4CF% 43OZ 55%
Top 57%Mid 22%Depth 20%
Sillinger line
Sillinger – Coyle – Olivier
54.1%chance share xGF%
70 min · 7 GPGF–GA 4–3CF% 51OZ 39%
Top 73%
Monahan line
Voronkov – Monahan – Nichushkin
52.5%chance share xGF%
36 min · 5 GPGF–GA 2–1CF% 55OZ 48%
Top 37%Mid 25%Depth 37%
Monahan–Nichushkin–Garland
Monahan – Nichushkin – Garland
41.9%chance share xGF%
29 min · 5 GPGF–GA 0–0CF% 45OZ 52%
Top 36%Mid 50%
Heinen line
Lomberg – Heinen – Garland
47.7%chance share xGF%
23 min · 5 GPGF–GA 0–0CF% 52OZ 50%
Top 40%Mid 39%Depth 22%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 21+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time63%League rank2nd most stableLines used 5+ minutes10Games with shift data7 (1 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Werenski–Severson
76
5
44.3
47.7
3–1
48
66%
Werenski–Mateychuk
44
7
49.4
48.7
2–2
53
54%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Werenski, Fantilli, Knies, Johnson, Coyle
24
1–0
6.63
0.73
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.