MTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKEDMTL 59% @ CHI 41%TBL 50% @ COL 50%MODEL v0.2.0LAST RUN OCT 23, 3:45 PM ET5,248 GAMES BACKTESTED59.1% PICKED
BUF
Buffalo Sabres
#18 Puckigree · −0.64-4-2 · 23rd in standingsAtlantic · Eastern
As deployed last game
Oct 21 vs PHI, from shift data: the most-used combinations at 5v5, not a projection.
Split up since the game before: Thompson–McLeod–Doan · Malenstyn–Krebs–Danforth · Norris–Helenius–Kulich
Line board
Forward lines with 27+ minutes together at 5v5. The big number is chance share (xGF%) shrunk toward the team’s 53.6% until a line has enough chances of its own; hover it for the raw value.
Ostlund line
Benson – Ostlund – Quinn
62.3%chance share xGF%
95 min · 9 GPGF–GA 6–1CF% 56OZ 93%
Top 60%Mid 27%
Thompson line
Thompson – Krebs – Doan
54.9%chance share xGF%
32 min · 8 GPGF–GA 2–1CF% 57OZ 69%
Top 76%
Thompson–Norris–Doan
Thompson – Norris – Doan
58.7%chance share xGF%
31 min · 7 GPGF–GA 1–0CF% 55OZ 71%
Top 49%Mid 35%
Which lines are workingper 60 at 5v5
Every dot is a forward line with 27+ minutes; grey dots are the rest of the league. Lines are centred on the league’s median line.
Line stability
Top 4 lines’ share of line time41%League rank18th most stableLines used 5+ minutes21Games with shift data9 (1 left out)
Stable lines are a coach’s choice, not a grade. Games are left out when the NHL’s shift chart is missing or doesn’t match the box score.
Defence pairs
Pair
Min
GP
xGF%
CF%
GF–GA
OZ%
vs top
Samuelsson–Dahlin
81
7
51.0
48.5
1–3
58
57%
Power–Zellweger
61
8
61.2
53.3
1–2
57
61%
Power play and penalty kill units
The five skaters at 5-on-4 and the four at 4-on-5, with 5+ minutes together.
Unit
Skaters
Min
GF–GA
xGF/60
xGA/60
PP1
Dahlin, Thompson, Quinn, Ostlund, Benson
15
2–0
8.23
0.00
PP2
Power, Thompson, Quinn, Ostlund, Benson
8
1–0
9.49
1.72
Every line
All forward lines with 10+ minutes together at 5v5. Raw and shrunk chance share side by side; k = 4 expected goals.